CANADA DIRECTLY IN PATH OF NORTH KOREAN MISSILES

Canada would be directly in the way of a North Korean nuclear war

If Kim Jong-Un was to launch a strike at New York City, the intercontinental ballistic missile would pass directly over Ottawa

Now that North Korea has developed missiles that can hit the eastern United States, it also means that any missile attack would spend much of its flight time over Canadian soil.

Given Canada's awkward geographic position between North Korea and the United States, any North Korean missile launched at a U.S. target east of California would necessarily enter Canadian airspace.

With the launch of Hwasong-14 on Friday, North Korea proved itself capable of launching a nuclear-capable missile that could reach of most of the continental United States.

 

A July 28, 2017 picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on July 29, 2017 shows North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Hwasong-14 being launched at an undisclosed place in North Korea. AFP/Getty Images

A subsequent analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists specifically highlighted the missiles' risk to five major U.S. cities: Los Angeles, Chicago, Denver, Boston and New York.

"Washington, D.C. may be just out of range," wrote researcher David Wright.

Although it may seem counterintuitive on a standard map, the shortest distance between North Korea and much of the United States involves plotting a course over the Arctic Circle.

 

It's what's known to navigators as a "great circle track," and it's the same reason why a direct flight from Los Angeles to London will pass over Northern Quebec.

 

An illustration shows the 'great circle' flight path followed by a North Korean missile aimed at Boston. Google Maps/DaftLogic.com

Any missile fired at New York City, in particular, would pass over Gjoa Haven, NU, Hudson Bay and Ottawa. A Boston-bound missile would pass near Montreal.

 

The North Korean missile threat caused former defence minister Peter MacKay this week to express regret that he wasn't more aggressive in signing a continental missile defence strategy with the U.S.

"I think the U.S. is going to take the necessary action to shoot down an imminent threat coming from any direction," MacKay told the National Post by phone.

 

With the world staring down the barrel of North Korea's nuclear arsenal, sane people might be wondering why no one has started bombing them yet? The answer is simple. The repercussions would be disastrous. Click through to see an extensive accounting of North Korea's conventional arms.

"They're going to consult with us - they'll let us know - but they're going to do it," he said.

 

A 2014 Senate report confirmed that should missiles suddenly appear over the Northwest Territories, Canada's only military role would be to warn the Americans.

 

"Canada currently has no say on when, where or whether it should be engaged," it read.

 

However, MacKay acknowledges that the Trump administration hasn't made it an ideal time to get Canadians on board with a continental missile defence scheme.

 

"I suspect that there was a window when Obama was the president … when Canadians would have been far more comfortable and accepting of those discussions," he said.

 

Being "in the way" of a nuclear war is quite familiar to Canada.

 

During the Cold War, much of Canada's defence planning revolved around the possibility that it would be hit by wayward or intercepted nuclear weapons intended for the United States.

 

"This is exactly the same position that Canada was in during the Cold War," said Fred Armbruster, executive director of the Canadian Civil Defence Museum, writing in an email to the National Post.

Although Canadian authorities prepared for direct Soviet strikes on strategic centres such as Ottawa or Edmonton, they also considered the possibility that shoddy or intercepted warheads could rain down on the Canadian countryside.

 

The Avro Arrow project was not without setbacks, such as this less-than-perfect landing at Malton Airport on November 11, 1958.  Postmedia files

The famed Avro Arrow, in fact, was designed as an "interceptor" - an aircraft whose sole purpose was to fly to the Arctic as fast as possible and shoot down Soviet bombers primarily bound for the U.S.

 

According to Canadian War Museum historian Andrew Burtch, Cold War defence planners referred to unplanned nuclear explosions as "random detonations."

 

"Planners believed that ICBMs would actually be less likely to cause random detonations simply because of their more direct path towards their intended targets, but there was a remote possibility of random ICBM detonations all the same," he told the National Post.

 

However, the threat level is likely much lower than it was during the Cold War, when the world was repeatedly brought to the edge of Armageddon by mere technical errors.

North Korean analysts generally agree that the new missiles are intended by dictator Kim Jong-Un as a way to extract political concessions in the region.

 

"At this point, we've got to be very concerned not that the North Koreans are just going to wake up one morning and decide to incinerate Tacoma or Seattle," Gordon Chang, a frequent commentator on North Korea, told Washington State's Komo News.

Chang added, "but what we've got to be concerned is that they're going to use their nukes for blackmail."

For now, the U.S. East Coast is likely safe, given that the Hwasong-14 does not appear to have a functioning re-entry vehicle - meaning that any warhead would be broken up by the extreme heat and pressure of entering the earth's atmosphere.

However, the tests have prompted the state of Hawaii to begin drafting a preparedness plan in case of a North Korean missile attack.

"We do not want to cause any undue stress for the public; however, we have a responsibility to plan for all hazards," Vern Miyagi, administrator of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, said in a statement.

Given Hawaii's proximity to Asia, though, North Korean missiles have been in range of the state since at least 1998.

 

Incidentally, Canada is also in the flight path of U.S.-bound missiles fired by Iran, another country frequently cited as an contemporary nuclear threat.

 

Specifically, a missile fired from Tehran to Los Angeles would pass directly over Edmonton and Calgary.

 

• Email: thopper@nationalpost.com